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Strategy and Tactics - LRB5 Fouling Stats
Doubleskulls - Jul 08, 2007 - 02:20 PM
Post subject: LRB5 Fouling Stats
Below are some stats I generated to determine the efficacy of fouling under LRB5. These were generated by doing 500,000 fouls for each combination and counting the outcomes. Therefore the numbers will be slightly out - but not significantly.
The INJ column refers to the chance of getting an injury, the SO column the chance of being sent off. DP is if you have the dirty player skill, SG sneaky git and DP &SG both. The results are None - i.e. no armour break, Stun is a stunned result, KO knocked out and CAS any sort of casualty. KO+ is knockouts and cas - and the SO column shows the total chance of being sent off.
So the first set of results show an "Av1 player" being fouled - i.e you've got enough assists to guarantee an armour break. Hence the None row shows zeros - it won't happen and you won't be sent off. If you don't have any skills you'll get a stun .582 of the time (or 58.2% for those who prefer) and will be sent off .166 of the time. You've got a .418 chance of getting a KO or Cas, and overall a .305 chance of being sent off.
The ratio shows the ratio of sendings off vs casualties - with KO's counting half. So for this instance its .957 - so you are slightly more likely to get sent off than a postiive result.
Code:
Av 1 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Stun 0.582 0.166 0.416 0.139 0.583 0.167 0.416 0.138
KO 0.251 0.065 0.306 0.074 0.250 0.065 0.306 0.074
Cas 0.167 0.074 0.278 0.093 0.166 0.074 0.278 0.092
KO+ 0.418 0.305 0.584 0.305 0.417 0.305 0.584 0.305
ratio 0.959 1.410 0.954 1.411
Av 2 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.028 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000
Stun 0.568 0.151 0.422 0.144 0.568 0.151 0.421 0.143
KO 0.243 0.058 0.304 0.072 0.242 0.057 0.303 0.073
Cas 0.162 0.069 0.274 0.089 0.162 0.069 0.275 0.090
KO+ 0.405 0.306 0.578 0.305 0.404 0.278 0.579 0.306
ratio 0.927 1.396 1.020 1.395
Av 3 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.082 0.027 0.028 0.028 0.083 0.000 0.028 0.000
Stun 0.535 0.145 0.415 0.127 0.535 0.146 0.415 0.128
KO 0.229 0.056 0.294 0.065 0.229 0.057 0.294 0.066
Cas 0.153 0.067 0.264 0.085 0.153 0.066 0.263 0.084
KO+ 0.383 0.296 0.557 0.305 0.382 0.268 0.557 0.278
ratio 0.905 1.345 0.997 1.476
Av 4 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.168 0.056 0.083 0.028 0.166 0.000 0.083 0.000
Stun 0.486 0.125 0.395 0.127 0.486 0.12\5 0.396 0.128
KO 0.209 0.048 0.276 0.063 0.209 0.048 0.275 0.062
Cas 0.138 0.058 0.246 0.079 0.139 0.058 0.246 0.078
KO+ 0.347 0.287 0.522 0.297 0.348 0.232 0.521 0.268
ratio 0.844 1.291 1.049 1.434
Av 5 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.277 0.055 0.166 0.055 0.278 0.000 0.167 0.000
Stun 0.421 0.115 0.366 0.107 0.421 0.116 0.366 0.107
KO 0.181 0.045 0.248 0.054 0.180 0.045 0.248 0.054
Cas 0.120 0.052 0.219 0.071 0.121 0.053 0.219 0.071
KO+ 0.302 0.267 0.467 0.287 0.301 0.213 0.467 0.232
ratio 0.790 1.195 0.987 1.478
Av 6 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.417 0.083 0.277 0.055 0.416 0.000 0.277 0.000
Stun 0.340 0.090 0.324 0.102 0.341 0.090 0.324 0.102
KO 0.145 0.035 0.213 0.050 0.146 0.035 0.212 0.049
Cas 0.098 0.041 0.186 0.061 0.097 0.042 0.186 0.062
KO+ 0.243 0.250 0.399 0.268 0.243 0.166 0.399 0.212
ratio 0.682 1.091 1.024 1.377
Av 7 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.583 0.084 0.417 0.083 0.584 0.000 0.416 0.000
Stun 0.243 0.077 0.271 0.076 0.243 0.076 0.271 0.076
KO 0.104 0.030 0.169 0.039 0.104 0.030 0.170 0.040
Cas 0.070 0.032 0.144 0.051 0.069 0.032 0.143 0.051
KO+ 0.174 0.223 0.312 0.250 0.173 0.138 0.313 0.167
ratio 0.546 0.913 0.875 1.369
Av 8 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.722 0.111 0.584 0.084 0.723 0.000 0.583 0.000
Stun 0.163 0.051 0.197 0.067 0.162 0.051 0.197 0.067
KO 0.069 0.020 0.119 0.033 0.069 0.020 0.120 0.033
Cas 0.046 0.022 0.100 0.038 0.046 0.021 0.101 0.038
KO+ 0.115 0.204 0.219 0.222 0.115 0.092 0.220 0.139
ratio 0.395 0.717 0.873 1.152
Av 9 DP SG DP & SG
INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO INJ SO
None 0.834 0.111 0.723 0.111 0.832 0.000 0.723 0.000
Stun 0.097 0.042 0.134 0.041 0.098 0.042 0.134 0.042
KO 0.042 0.017 0.079 0.023 0.042 0.017 0.078 0.023
Cas 0.027 0.016 0.065 0.028 0.028 0.016 0.065 0.028
KO+ 0.069 0.186 0.144 0.203 0.07 0.074 0.143 0.093
ratio 0.260 0.512 0.66 1.124
So some analysis
Without skills - at AV5 you are more likely to get your opponent off the pitch than be sent off yourself.DP increases this to AV7 and SG to AV8. If you have both its always more likely to get them off than you.
Effective fouling really needs to take into account three factors that are difficult to model. One if relative value of a player. A 50k lineman is worth a lot less than an a war dancer - so it might be a good idea to foul even when the odds are against you - because you'll happiliy get 2 linemen sent off and never see the war dancer again.
Secondly you have to take into account the relative value of a knockout. In the last remaining scoring drive KOs are just as good as casualties (for winning the game 
) but in the 1st turn you have to expect your opponent to have multiple chances to return.
The third factor is the depth of team you have and your opponent has. Getting them off the pitch might be okay - because you've got plenty of reserves and they have none - and maybe the current drive is nearly over so you can replenish your team and they can't.
Its the combination of those 3 factors that really should drive the "ratio" I've got above - but I've roughly modelled it so a KO is equivalent to half a casualty. Roughly speaking - fouling is never an even trade if you aren't skilled - so you always need to pick on higher value opponents than you use to foul. DP and SG both "break" even against Av6 - whilst the combo always offers a positive return.
Cramy - Jul 08, 2007 - 08:40 PM
Post subject:
Good table. But I think that some KO+ rows are wrong. In some cases it is CAS + KO, and in other cases it is CAS + KO + stun.
You are also right in your analysis. Trying to get a key player off the field can be worth the foul even if the chances of success vs. getting sent off is not that great.
Marc-Andre
Doubleskulls - Jul 09, 2007 - 03:00 AM
Post subject:
I've had a look - and I think you might be misinterpreting the table. There are two columns INJ & SO. On the KO+ row the INJ column shows the chance of getting a KO or Cas. In the SO column it shows the total chance of being sent off - that's so you can compare the odds of a KO/Cas vs getting sent off. In the individual rows it shows the chances of getting sent off AND getting that injury result so at Av9 without skills you've a 4.2% chance of getting a KO, and 1.7% chance of getting a KO and getting sent off. Does that make sense?
Cramy - Jul 09, 2007 - 07:57 PM
Post subject:
Doubleskulls wrote:
I've had a look - and I think you might be misinterpreting the table. There are two columns INJ & SO. On the KO+ row the INJ column shows the chance of getting a KO or Cas. In the SO column it shows the total chance of being sent off - that's so you can compare the odds of a KO/Cas vs getting sent off. In the individual rows it shows the chances of getting sent off AND getting that injury result so at Av9 without skills you've a 4.2% chance of getting a KO, and 1.7% chance of getting a KO and getting sent off. Does that make sense?
Ahh, I was looking at the wrong column. The INJ column makes sense. The SO column, with the above explanation, makes more sense. But the numbers are still odd to me.
At AV8, there is a 6.9% change of getting the KO, and a 2.0% change of getting the KO and getting sent off. There is a 4.6% chance of getting a casualty, with 2.2% chance of getting the casualty and getting sent off. I would have thought that the relationship between the INJ and the SO columns would be linear. Why is the chance of getting sent-off higher for the CAS compared to the KO? Both the KO and CAS require the armor roll to break armor on a roll of 9+. Then in both cases there is an injury roll. The same rolls occur. So if the odds of getting a KO is higher than getting a CAS, shouldn't the odds of getting a KO and be sent off be higher than the odds of getting a CAS and be sent off?
Or maybe I'm just being dense ...
Marc-Andre
Doubleskulls - Jul 10, 2007 - 01:17 AM
Post subject:
Its because its the chance of getting that injury result AND getting sent off. With a casualty 5,5 & 6,6 get you sent off whilst with a KO its just s 4,4. So you actually have much more chance of being sent off if you get a cas (2/6 vs 1/9) than if you get a KO.
Cramy - Jul 10, 2007 - 09:09 PM
Post subject:
Ahh, didn't think of that. Thanks for the explanation.
Marc-André