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Strategy and Tactics - Starting Fan Factor
Doubleskulls - Nov 19, 2003 - 09:24 AM
Post subject: Starting Fan Factor
One aspect of the "what FF should I start with" debate is how much does the -1 modifier for FFs over 10 effect the value you should start at.
So I've done some number crunching and come up with some figures to see what effect starting FF has.
All the tables show the starting FF and then a value after 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 games.
For the FF modifiers I've applied the following rules. - 1 & 6 rule applies.
- FF mods for >10 apply
- A "result" is generated at random. Each result reflects the possible modifier to the FF from the game. There is one -1, two 0, three +1, four +2 and five +3. If anyone has a better idea for the distribution I'd be interested to hear it. I've assumed that FF does not effect the match results at all. So a FF1 team has the same chance of getting +3 as a FF30 team.
- FF cannot drop below 1.
Final Fan Factor
This shows where your fan factor is after n games. So with a FF 1 you'd expect to have FF 5.7 after 15 games.
Code:
FF 5 10 15 20 25
1 2.8 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.2
2 3.4 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.7
3 4.4 5.8 7.1 8.3 9.3
4 5.3 6.7 8.0 9.0 10.0
5 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.6
6 7.3 8.5 9.6 10.4 11.2
7 8.3 9.4 10.3 11.1 11.8
8 9.2 10.1 10.9 11.6 12.3
9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.8
Increase
This shows how much your FF has increased. So starting with FF2 will, on average have increased by 2.9 after 10 games.
Code:
FF 5 10 15 20 25
1 1.8 3.3 4.7 6.0 7.2
2 1.4 2.9 4.3 5.5 6.7
3 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.3 6.3
4 1.3 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.0
5 1.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.6
6 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.2
7 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.8
8 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.3
9 1.0 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8
Average FF
This shows your average FF over all the games played. So with FF 1 you'd have had an average FF of 3.6 over the preceding 15 games.
Code:
FF 5 10 15 20 25
1 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0
2 2.8 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.6
3 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.5
4 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.3
5 5.8 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.2
6 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.0
7 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.8
8 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5
9 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2
Zombie - Nov 19, 2003 - 11:21 AM
Post subject:
Always start with 9 if you can at all afford it, as it means more money coming in. Never start below 8 no matter what. Only exceptions are dwarves and undead who don't need money!
Tutenkharnage - Nov 19, 2003 - 02:16 PM
Post subject:
I wouldn't start below 6. Some cheap teams (Amazons come to mind) can flourish at this level. If you win, it will go up; once it hits 10, everyone slows down anyway.
-Chet
Bevan - Nov 21, 2003 - 04:58 PM
Post subject: FF modelling
I recently made a more complex model but came up with similar results.
I allowed for the effect that FF can have on the match result so I took wins, 2TDS and 2 Cas into account. This required a turn based model that considered kickoff events, and the chance that teams will score or gain casualties depending on the value of players currently on the field.
Low FF means you can start with better players, more players, more rerolls or an apothecary for game 1. This could mean you win more games so FF increases faster.
High FF means you avoid kickoff event casualties, gain extra rerolls and gain income from purchases.
In my model, the FF after starting with 1 to 9 FF was similar to Doubleskulls' model. All teams tend to come closer in FF but those that start high remain higher even after 20 games.
In support of Zombie's insistence on high FF, my model suggested that for the first three games, teams starting with with low FF may do better (for reasons suggested above), but after that the high FF teams tend to win more games. However, the difference is small and subject to various assumptions in my rather simplistic gameplay model.