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Doubleskulls |
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Post subject: To foul or not to foul?
 Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 09:48 AM
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Ex-Rulz Committee
Joined: Mar 05, 2003
Undisclosed
Posts: 2627
Location: Kent, UK
Status: Offline
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With IGMEOY fouling has dramatically reduced in frequency. You see a lot of teams never take a dirty player, and rarely, if ever, foul. However is this the best strategy to take?
A quick run through the process of a "successful foul".
- You have to break armour. This is dependant on the number of assists and the opponent's Av.
- You then have to get a casualty (1/6 chance normally) to make strategic fouling worthwhile. Otherwise you'll run out of players sooner.
- You have to avoid being sent off (or manage to argue the call)
For a normal player fouling without assists the chances of actually getting a casualty on a Av8 player aren't great - in fact only 6.9%. So the odds of getting sent off (14%) don't make it look like a great idea - you are twice as likely to lose a player as your opponent.
But this is not the end of the story. How much is your fouler worth compared to your opponent? If you are fouling a War Dancer with a Human lineman then the odds of you losing a player are the same - but the cost to your team is much smaller. So lets factor that in.
War Dancer - Av7, 120k.
Foul gives +1 to av.
Break Armour 7+ 58.3%
Casualty 10+ 16.7%
That's a 9.7% chance of getting the War Dancer out of the game - or ~11.7K worth of damage to your opponent.
Now the chance of getting sent off is 6+ (1/6) and then a 5/6 chance of failing to argue. That makes 13.8%. With your 50k lineman thats 6.9k worth of damage to you. So the return is actually 1.68 in your favour.
Now lets say you've got Dirty Player. Suddenly the odds of getting a casualty rocket - even without an assist you've got 22.5% chance of getting rid of the War Dancer - that's 27k of damage to your oppoent with still only 6.9k of damage to you (well its a bit higher because you've got a skill). That's a ratio of 3.88 in your favour.
The odds actually work out that 50k DPs are so good at fouling that with one assist its worth fouling any player.
Now what about when the eye is on you? Well even then, if you get enough assists it worth fouling. You need to drop 100k players down to an effective Av of 7 (so a DE Blitzer you'd need 1 assist). Regardless of the number of assists is not worth fouling anyone cheaper than you are.
Now the one big hole in the theory is that the roster costs of players are not necessarily indicative of their value on the field. Zombies are 30k - but a zombie on the pitch is worth a lot more than a zombie in the dugout.
The following table summarises the "ratios of worth". So At Av9 a DP's victim needs to be worth 1.25 times as much as the DP. For another fouler he need to be worth nearly 5 times as much.
BTW These presume that you haven't been sent off so can argue the call.
Ratios of Worth (No Eye)
Code: Av DP Other
10 2.07 9.92
9 1.25 4.96
8 0.83 3.02
7 0.62 2.01
6 0.49 1.43
5 0.42 1.16
4 0.38 1.00
3 0.35 0.91
Ratios of Worth (Eye on you)
Code: Av DP Other
10 6.22 29.76
9 3.75 14.88
8 2.50 9.06
7 1.85 6.04
6 1.46 4.30
5 1.25 3.47
4 1.13 3.00
3 1.05 2.72
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Ian 'Double Skulls' Williams
SLOBB
NAF Racial Results
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Tutenkharnage |
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 11:37 AM
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Joined: Feb 11, 2003
Posts: 620
Status: Offline
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Are you actually asking a question? 
You forgot the value of having the Eye on the other team - and thus not fouling in an effort to keep it there.
Anyway, my answer is "FOUL"!
-Chet |
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SBG |
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 12:53 PM
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Joined: Feb 15, 2003
Canada
Posts: 772
Location: Canada
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We, Chaos Dwarves, don't understand maths, but say : "FOUL!"
Fred |
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Forget the Yankees, forget the Habs: THAT'S a Dynasty!!!
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Khankill |
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 01:07 PM
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Joined: Feb 10, 2003
United States of America
Posts: 105
Location: United States of America
Status: Offline
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| It hurt me at the Underworld cup but I still say "Foul!" |
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 03:17 PM
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Joined: Feb 10, 2003
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Posts: 2696
Location: Undisclosed
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| On a team where the lino's have access to General skills (ie, non-stunty teams and lizzies), I always have at least one DP, even if I don't intend fouling. It's a nice deterent against PO. |
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Post subject: Re: To foul or not to foul?
Posted: Nov 18, 2003 - 03:28 PM
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Joined: Oct 24, 2003
Posts: 1671
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Doubleskulls wrote: You then have to get a casualty (1/6 chance normally) to make strategic fouling worthwhile. Otherwise you'll run out of players sooner.
I don't agree with that. A KO is often enough to take the other player out for the rest of the game. Also, sometimes a stunned result is all you need, even if it sends you player off.
The answer is YES, it's very much worth fouling. I don't know why most people don't understand that.
I always have at least 2 dirty players on any team i play and i don't think i've ever played a game under LRB where i haven't fouled at least once. |
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Indigo |
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Post subject: Re: To foul or not to foul?
Posted: Nov 19, 2003 - 12:38 AM
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Da Warboss
Joined: Feb 12, 2003
England
Posts: 2168
Location: England
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Zombie69 wrote: I don't agree with that. A KO is often enough to take the other player out for the rest of the game.
You can't really say that - a KO nearer the end of a game when there will be little chance of a drive ending before full time, yes, but if a player is KO'd early then they have a pretty good chance of returning. For example, coming back after the 1st drive finishes is 50/50, and their chances of failing 2 in a row is only 25% - that's 1 TD and the half ending.
I agree too, fouling is perfectly acceptable in the right situation. I don't understand those guys on the GW BB forum who claim it's unsporting, as well as those people who stop blocking/fouling when they have got the 2 TDs they need for the FF increase...  |
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Mestari |
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 19, 2003 - 02:16 AM
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Joined: Feb 11, 2003
Posts: 407
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You mean 2 CAS I suppose?
But to answer the assumed question, strategic fouling is worthwhile, definitely. All-out fouling war is hardly useful, given the effect of the eye and the affect that arranging the assists has on your gameplay. |
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Teemu Tokola aka Mestari
Member #52
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Doubleskulls |
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Post subject: Re: To foul or not to foul?
Posted: Nov 19, 2003 - 02:41 AM
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Ex-Rulz Committee
Joined: Mar 05, 2003
Undisclosed
Posts: 2627
Location: Kent, UK
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 So much for rhetoric.
Zombie69 wrote: Doubleskulls wrote: You then have to get a casualty (1/6 chance normally) to make strategic fouling worthwhile. Otherwise you'll run out of players sooner.
I don't agree with that. A KO is often enough to take the other player out for the rest of the game. Also, sometimes a stunned result is all you need, even if it sends you player off.
That's why I said "strategic" fouling. Tactical fouling is a completely different beast. I thought about including KO's but I think it just complicates matters. |
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Ian 'Double Skulls' Williams
SLOBB
NAF Racial Results
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Post subject:
Posted: Nov 19, 2003 - 11:26 AM
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Joined: Oct 24, 2003
Posts: 1671
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A good approximation with KOs is too assume that about half of them sends the player out for the rest of the game. It depends on many factors, including game time and how bashy the teams are (bashier means fewer drives), but half the time seems to be a good approximation.
Also, i don't consider a player coming back from KO on the last turn of the game as having any impact! |
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